Endemic COVID-19

COVID-19 pandemic
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COVID-19 portal

COVID-19 is an endemic disease according to most experts. Unlike a pandemic, an endemic disease occurs at predictable and manageable levels. This transition has made COVID-19 data more difficult to track. The observed behavior of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, suggests it is unlikely it will die out, and the lack of a COVID-19 vaccine that provides long-lasting immunity against infection means it cannot immediately be eradicated; thus, transition to an endemic phase was probable. In an endemic phase, people continue to become infected and ill, but in relatively stable numbers. Such a transition was thought to take years or decades. Precisely what would constitute an endemic phase is contested.

Endemic is a frequently misunderstood and misused word outside the realm of epidemiology. Endemic does not mean mild, or that COVID-19 must become a less hazardous disease. The severity of endemic disease would be dependent on various factors, including the evolution of the virus, population immunity, and vaccine development and rollout.

COVID-19 endemicity is distinct from the COVID-19 public health emergency of international concern, which was ended by the World Health Organization on 5 May 2023. Some politicians and commentators conflated what they termed endemic COVID-19 with the lifting of public health restrictions or a comforting return to pre-pandemic normality. The transition point of a pandemic into an endemic state is not well-defined, and whether this has occurred differs according to the definitions used.