Conservative wave

This article is about right-wing populist wave in Latin America that appeared in mid-2010s. For the right-wing to far-right nationalistic populist wave outside of Latin America like North America and Europe in the mid-2010s, see Neo-nationalism. For the left wing equivalent, see Pink tide. For a milk sea that is also referred to as the "Blue tide", see Milky seas effect.
Map of Latin America depicting the ruling party of each country by São Paulo Forum affiliation. Red depicts member parties (left-wing) and blue depicts non-member parties (right-wing) in 2011 (left), 2018 (center), and 2026 (right).

The conservative wave (Spanish: ola conservadora; Portuguese: onda conservadora), or blue tide (Spanish: marea azul; Portuguese: maré azul), or the turn to the right (Spanish: giro a la derecha; Portuguese: virada à direita) is a right-wing political phenomenon that occurred in the mid-2010s to the early 2020s across Latin America as a direct reaction to the pink tide. During the conservative wave, left-wing governments suffered their first major electoral losses in a decade.

In Argentina, Mauricio Macri (liberal-conservative, center-right) succeeded Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (Peronist) in 2015. In Brazil, the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff, a socialist, resulted in her departure and the rise of Vice President Michel Temer to power in 2016, and later to far-right congressman Jair Bolsonaro becoming President of Brazil. In Peru, the conservative economist Pedro Pablo Kuczynski succeeded Ollanta Humala, a socialist and left-wing nationalist. In Chile, the conservative Sebastián Piñera succeeded Michelle Bachelet, a social democrat, in 2018 in the same transition that occurred in 2010. In Bolivia, the conservative Jeanine Áñez succeeded Evo Morales amid the 2019 Bolivian political crisis. In Ecuador, the centre-right conservative banker Guillermo Lasso succeeded the deeply unpopular Lenín Moreno, becoming the first right-wing President of Ecuador in 14 years.

Starting in the mid-2020s, right-wing candidates rebounded with a handful of victories, constituting a second conservative wave. In late 2023 and early 2024, right-wing libertarian Javier Milei won the 2023 Argentine presidential election, defeating Peronist Sergio Massa; centre-right businessman Daniel Noboa defeating leftist Luisa González in Ecuador; right-wing politician José Raúl Mulino defeated the incumbent center-left vice president José Gabriel Carrizo in the 2024 Panamanian general election. This trend continued into 2025, with conservative Rodrigo Paz elected President of Bolivia, defeating the ruling socialist MAS in Bolivia for the first time in decades; and the 2025 victory of José Antonio Kast in Chile, as well as that of Nasry Asfura in Honduras. Analysts expect this trend to continue into 2026, with the left-wing candidates seen as likely to lose to their right-wing challengers in the upcoming elections for that year. In 2026, conservative populist Laura Fernández Delgado was elected President of Costa Rica.

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