Wells-Riley model

Not to be confused with Wells curve.

The Wells-Riley model is a simple model of the airborne transmission of infectious diseases, developed by William F. Wells and Richard L. Riley for tuberculosis and measles.

Wells-Riley can also be applied to other diseases transmitted in the air, such as COVID-19. The model describes the situation where one or more infected people are sharing a room (and so the room air) with other people who are susceptible to infection. It makes predictions for the probability that a susceptible person becomes infected. The prediction is that infection is more likely for small poorly ventilated rooms, and if the infected person is highly infectious.

The Wells-Riley is a highly simplified model of a very complex process, but does at least make predictions for how the probability of infection varies with things within our control, such as room ventilation.

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