Peak oil

Peak oil, or “peak extraction” of oil, is the point when global petroleum demand reaches its maximum rate. The main concern is the carbon dioxide emissions from transportation, which relies heavily on gasoline, diesel and kerosene. Adoption of electric vehicles, biofuels, or more efficient transport (like trains and waterways) could help reduce oil demand.

Peak oil relates closely to oil depletion; while petroleum reserves are finite, the key issue is the economic viability of extraction at current prices. Initially, it was believed that oil production would decline due to reserve depletion, but a new theory suggests that reduced oil demand could lower prices, affecting extraction costs. Demand may also decline due to persistent high prices.

Over the last century, many predictions of peak oil timing have been made, often later proven incorrect due to increased extraction rates. M. King Hubbert introduced comprehensive modeling of peak oil in a 1956 paper, predicting U.S. production would peak between 1965 and 1971; his global peak oil predictions were predictive through the 1990s and 2000s but eventually were deemed premature due to improved drilling technology. From the 100 bn barrels in 2024 current forecasts for peak oil range from 102 in 2030 to 113 in 2050. These estimates depend on future economic trends, technological advances, and efforts to mitigate climate change.