Optimism bias

Optimism bias is the tendency of an individual to overestimate the likelihood of positive events and underestimate that of negative events.

A cognitive bias, the optimistic bias is common across cultures, genders, ethnicities, nationalities, and age groups. It has implications to individual and group decision making, public health, policy, economics, and law.

The extent of optimism bias depends on a person's overall mood, their desired end state, the information they have about themselves and others, and their cognitive mechanisms. Generally, the optimism bias is stronger for underestimating negative events than overestimating positive events.

It is also known as unrealistic optimism, comparative optimism, and optimist's delusion.

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