Nuclear risk during the Russo-Ukrainian war (2022–present)

During the Russo-Ukrainian war, several senior Russian politicians, including President Vladimir Putin, former president and prime minister Dmitry Medvedev, and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, have made a number of statements widely seen as nuclear blackmail. The possibility of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons, and the risk of broader nuclear escalation, has been widely discussed by commentators and in the media. US scholars have called the invasion "the type of scenario most likely to trigger a nuclear war in Europe". On the other hand, British historian Lawrence Freedman argued the risk was low: "In Putin's mind, nuclear use is best kept for the most extreme contingencies when the state faces an existential threat."

Some of the Russian government's "red lines" have been crossed without nuclear response. For example, the June 2025 Operation Spiderweb coordinated drone attack by Ukraine on Russia's strategic bomber force, which is in use for conventional attacks against Ukraine.

In October 2022, Russian officials accused Ukraine of preparing a radiological weapon in the form of a dirty bomb. An International Atomic Energy Agency investigation refuted the claim. US officials feared Russia would use the claims or a false flag attack to establish pretext for a nuclear strike on Ukraine.

In March 2023, Putin announced plans to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, via Iskander short-range ballistic missiles, and gravity bombs for Su-25 aircraft. This was possibly completed in late 2024.

On November 21, 2024, following an announcement about changes to its nuclear doctrine, Russia fired an Oreshnik ballistic missile targeting the Pivdenmash (Yuzhmash) aerospace factory in Dnipro, Ukraine. This was the first use of a typically nuclear-armed multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle in combat. It was partly in response to a US policy allowing ATACMS and Storm Shadow use for attacks in Russia.

In addition to nuclear weapons threats, the Russian occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has led to a crisis over the safety of the plant and the risk of a nuclear disaster.